IMF approves 36-month EFF facility

IMFThe Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) today approved a 36-month extended arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) with Sri Lanka for an amount equivalent to SDR 1.1 billion (about US$1.5 billion, or 185 percent of quota) to support the country’s economic reform agenda.

The IMF arrangement aims to meet balance of payments needs arising from a deteriorating external environment and pressures that may persist until macroeconomic policies can be adjusted. It is also expected to catalyze an additional US$650 million in other multilateral and bilateral loans, bringing total support to about $2.2 billion (over and above existing financing arrangements).

The Executive Board’s decision will enable an immediate disbursement of SDR 119.894 million (about US$ 168.1 million), and the remainder will be available in 6 installments subject to quarterly reviews.

During the same meeting, the Board also concluded the 2016 Article IV consultation. A separate press release will be issued shortly.

Following the Executive Board discussion on Sri Lanka, Mr. Min Zhu, Deputy Managing Director and Acting Chair, issued the following statement:

“Despite positive growth momentum, Sri Lanka’s economy is beginning to show signs of strain from an increasingly difficult external environment and challenging policy adjustments. The new government’s economic agenda, supported by the Extended Fund Facility, provides an important opportunity to re-set macroeconomic policies, address key vulnerabilities, boost reserves, and support stability and resilience.

“A return to fiscal consolidation, targeting a reduction in the overall fiscal deficit to 3.5 percent of GDP by 2020, is the linchpin of the reform program. Rebuilding tax revenues through a comprehensive reform of both tax policy and administration will be key in this regard, supplemented by steps toward more effective control over expenditures and putting state enterprise operations on a more commercial footing.

“Medium-term growth prospects also need to be supported through a greater role for market forces and a decisive shift toward an outward orientation. A clear commitment to exchange rate flexibility will enable adjustment to a shifting external environment while allowing the central bank to rebuild foreign exchange reserves and focus more closely on its key mandate of price stability. The economic program also supports the government’s objective of boosting competitiveness and greater integration with regional and global markets through comprehensive trade reform and improvements to the investment environment. Steadfast implementation of these reforms should strengthen Sri Lanka’s ability to attract investment, improve prospects for sustained medium-term growth, and reduce fiscal risks.”

ANNEX

Recent Economic Developments

Macroeconomic performance in 2015 reflected a positive underlying growth momentum mitigated by the negative impact of unbalanced domestic policies and an increasingly difficult external environment. Real GDP growth was 4.8 percent in 2015 (broadly unchanged from 2014), on the basis of strong growth in services (particularly tourism), continued growth in agriculture, and a positive (albeit declining) contribution from manufacturing. The negative growth in construction and weaker growth in manufacturing were indicative of a slowdown in public and private investment, as well as the negative effects of slowing world trade. The economy is currently estimated to be operating slightly below its potential, while the unemployment rate remains at 4.3 percent in end 2015, close to the historical norm.

The government fiscal deficit expanded to 6.9 percent of GDP in 2015. While revenue increased by 1.5 percentage points to 13.1 percent of GDP, this mostly reflected one-off measures and tax collections from a temporary surge in vehicle imports. Expenditures rose by 2.1 percentage points to 19.9 percent of GDP, on account of a post-election wage hike, a higher interest bill, additional spending on goods and services, and an increase in income transfer programs.

The overall balance of payments deteriorated significantly in 2015 despite an improvement in the terms of trade. The current account deficit was contained at 2.5 percent of GDP in 2015—the same level as in 2014. Capital flows have also been a key driving force behind the deterioration in the balance of payments. The capital and financial account position has weakened due to foreign exit from government securities, lower FDI inflows, and slow implementation of externally financed public and private projects. Investor sentiment has worsened, reflecting global market volatility and concern over domestic policies.

Tougher external conditions in the wake of China rebalancing and unwinding of unconventional monetary policies were not outside Sri Lanka’s past experience. However, spillovers were magnified by domestic imbalances, as evidenced by higher volatility around the two elections (January and August 2015), and the official budget passed in November 2015. The rupee continues to face downward pressure—largely reflecting capital flow developments. The foreign exchange and government bond markets were volatile in March 2016. highlighting rigidities in both systems.

Program Summary

The proposed new IMF-supported program aims to provide a policy anchor for macroeconomic stability and structural reforms, while strengthening external resiliency in a challenging global environment.

The key objectives of the program relate to fiscal policy and the balance of payments, and measures to: (a) implement a structural increase in revenues, facilitating a reduction in the fiscal deficit; (b) reverse the decline in central bank foreign exchange reserves; (c) reduce public debt relative to GDP and lower Sri Lanka’s risk of debt distress; and (d) enhance public financial management and improve the operations of state owned enterprises. The program also aims to transition toward inflation targeting with a flexible exchange rate regime and to promote sustainable and inclusive economic growth.

To achieve these objectives, the program would envisage implementation of a set of reforms under six pillars:

(i) Fiscal consolidation;

(ii) Revenue mobilization;

(iii) Public financial management reform;

(iv) State enterprise reform;

(v) Transition to flexible inflation targeting under a flexible exchange rate regime; and

(vi) Reforms in the trade and investment regime.

Background

Sri Lanka, which became a member of the IMF on August 29, 1950, has an IMF quota of SDR 578.8 million.

Sri Lanka: Selected Economic Indicators, 2014–20
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Proj.

GDP and inflation (in percent)

Real GDP growth

4.9 4.8 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.2 5.4

Inflation (average)

3.3 0.9 4.1 5.3 5.1 5.0 5.0

Inflation (end-of-period)

2.1 2.8 5.4 5.2 5.0 5.0 5.0

Core inflation (end-of-period)

3.2 4.5 4.5 4.3 4.1 4.1 4.1

Savings and investment (in percent of GDP)

National savings

24.5 25.9 26.9 26.0 26.2 25.9 25.7

Government

-1.1 -2.1 -0.9 0.2 1.4 1.7 2.2

Private

25.6 28.0 27.8 25.9 24.8 24.2 23.6

National Investment

27.0 28.4 28.3 28.8 29.3 29.2 29.2

Government

6.1 6.5 6.5 6.9 7.5 7.3 7.3

Private

20.9 21.9 21.9 21.9 21.9 21.9 21.9

Savings-Investment balance

-2.5 -2.5 -1.5 -2.8 -3.1 -3.3 -3.4

Government

-7.2 -8.6 -7.4 -6.8 -6.0 -5.6 -5.1

Private

4.8 6.2 6.0 4.0 3.0 2.4 1.7

Public finances (in percent of GDP)

Revenue and grants

11.5 13.1 13.0 14.0 15.3 15.5 15.8

Expenditure

17.8 19.9 18.4 18.8 19.3 19.2 19.3

Primary balance

-2.1 -2.2 -0.8 0.0 0.7 0.8 1.0

Central government balance

-6.2 -6.9 -5.4 -4.7 -4.0 -3.7 -3.5

Central government net domestic financing

3.8 4.3 2.3 3.0 1.3 2.3 2.3

Central government debt

70.7 76.0 77.2 75.5 73.1 70.7 68.2

Money and credit (percent change, end of period)

Reserve money

18.3 16.5 18.4 12.0 13.5 15.0 15.6

Broad money

13.4 17.8 10.8 15.4 15.1 15.2 15.6

Domestic credit

10.5 23.5 8.5 11.7 11.5 11.8 12.5

Credit to private sector

8.8 25.1 10.0 14.3 15.5 14.5 15.2

Credit to government

12.9 21.3 6.2 7.7 4.9 6.9 7.2

Balance of payments (in millions of U.S. dollars)

Exports

11,130 10,505 10,456 10,942 11,838 12,664 14,093

Imports

-19,417 -18,935 -18,392 -20,763 -22,606 -24,357 -26,608

Current account balance

-1,989 -2,009 -1,202 -2,419 -2,916 -3,343 -3,812

Current account balance (in percent of GDP)

-2.5 -2.5 -1.5 -2.8 -3.1 -3.3 -3.4

Export value growth (percent)

7.1 -5.6 -0.5 4.6 8.2 7.0 11.3

Import value growth (percent)

7.9 -2.5 -2.9 12.9 8.9 7.7 9.2

Gross official reserves (end of period)

In millions of U.S. dollars

8,208 7,304 7,853 9,372 11,866 13,033 13,843

In months of imports

4.3 3.8 3.7 4.1 4.8 4.9 5.0

External debt (public and private)

In billions of U.S. dollars

43.0 44.8 45.9 49.0 53.4 58.4 62.4

As a percent of GDP

53.8 55.1 55.8 55.9 56.3 57.1 56.5

Memorandum items:

Nominal GDP (in billions of rupees)

10,448 11,183 12,147 13,374 14,787 16,333 18,076

Sources: Data provided by the Sri Lankan authorities; and IMF staff estimates.

For additional information on the IMF and Sri Lanka, see: http://www.imf.org/external/country/LKA/index.htm

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