Implications of Modi’s Victory for Indo-Sri Lanka Relations

India By Dr. Rajiv Kumar.                                                                  

The outcome of Lok Sabha (lower house of the Indian Parliament) elections on May 16th was unexpected and unprecedented over the last three decades. The trend towards more fractured and fragmented outcomes has been reversed decisively. The people have quite clearly risen above regional, provincial and caste concerns to give a resounding majority to Mr. Narendra Modi.

In a presidential style election, he has won the people’s mandate to usher a change in India. All over the country, voters apparently did not really care about the particular candidate from Mr. Modi’s Bhartiya Janta Party or the BJP. They voted for him and his promises. This mood was best captured by the BJP itself when it changed its TV advertisements in the midst of the election process, to give prominence to the party’s symbol as some voters had reportedly abstained from voting because they did not find Mr. Modi’s picture on the electronic voting machine. BJP won 178 seats from the 342 rural constituencies as compared to a mere 27 by the Congress.  This demonstrates the spread of Mr. Modi’s appeal even to population segments that were hitherto considered to be Congress’s secure vote bank.

Two significant implications for Indo-Sri Lankan relations have emerged from this decisive electoral outcome. These emerged even ahead of Mr. Modi’s taking over as the prime minister.  Firstly, by spontaneously inviting the heads of governments of all of India’s neighbouring countries to his Cabinet’s swearing-in, Mr. Modi has demonstrated his decisiveness and that he will run his own foreign policy. All the apprehensions that he will take his directions from the parent organization, the Rahstriy Swayamwewak Sangh (RSS) or allow India’s foreign policy to be hijacked by provincial or narrow sectional interests have been dispelled by this one action. Foreign policy, while taking into account, these concerns, will seek to sub-serve broader national interests. Therefore, Colombo can engage with New Delhi on substantive issues without the constant fear of bilateral relations being held hostage by or having to be reversed due either to the whims of political dispensation in  Chennai or right wing formations.

Secondly, Mr. Modi has signalled that India’s neighbourhood will be the focus of his government’s foreign policy. This will be a very welcome change from the earlier dispensation in which the President of the UPA, who wielded real political power, had zero interest in improving India’s relations with its neighbours. As a result, these relations floundered and drifted without any direction, with the government and the party working at cross purposes on many occasions.

Quite often bilateral relations with our neighbours were held hostage by provincial leaders pushing their sectarian and sub-national political agendas at the cost of the larger national interest. This will no longer be the case. The decisive mandate won by Mr Modi will ensure that he will have the political legitimacy and authority to define India’s strategic national interests, which in turn will drive the country’s foreign policy.

Indo-Sri Lanka relations can henceforth be put on an even keel in pursuit of longer term strategic goals that are mutually beneficial. I cannot visualize Mr. Modi being distracted from his longer term strategic goal of creating abiding ties with India’s neighbours by distractions such as the Rem Sethu, howsoever hard these might be pushed by some sectional interests. In return he will expect Colombo to also pursue a strategic approach towards India and not let minor issues like fishermen rights and events in any Indian province affect bilateral relations. (Asian Sun)

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